Articles of Interest - Week 10/28 - 11/3
- Walker Robinson
- Nov 3, 2024
- 4 min read
Updated: Jan 27
Patrick Tucker, Defense One. October 28th, 2024.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury has issued a "final rule" to implement President Biden's August 2023 executive order to block U.S. investments in emerging Chinese tech. This “rule” explicitly targets U.S. venture capital and investments in Chinese quantum computing, AI, and advanced microelectronics (like semiconductors). U.S. investors have contributed roughly $40.2 billion to Chinese AI companies between 2015 and 2021. That is around 37% of the total investment in Chinese AI development. The rule also requires U.S. investors to notify the Treasury Department of specific dealings in critical technologies like semiconductors and AI.
This action is essential for U.S. efforts to prevent China from using U.S. money to advance tech that could threaten our national security. The realization that many U.S.-backed Chinese startups eventually ended up on the Treasury's Entity List suggests previous investment controls were insufficient as they allowed money to startups to slip through. The focus on venture capital indicates a strategic shift from controlling exports to restricting capital flows. This economic attention represents a new front in the U.S.-China tech competition, but only time will tell how effective these measures are.
Sam Winter-Levy, Foreign Affairs. October 28th, 2024.
This article examines the emerging AI partnership between U.S. tech companies and Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As highlighted by Riyadh's Global AI Summit, these oil-rich countries invest heavily in AI technology as part of their economic diversification strategies. Saudi Arabia is planning a $40 billion AI fund, and the UAE is launching specialized institutions and large language models. U.S. tech giants are drawn to the region's abundant energy, capital, and oil resources. U.S. companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Amazon are making significant regional investments and partnerships. Winter-Levy, the author, urges overly optimistic policymakers in Washington not to get their hopes up that this tech-oriented relationship will draw these countries away from their relationship with China. He says the U.S. should pursue this partnership, "But they should do so within limits and with safeguards—and without deluding themselves that doing so will bring a lasting strategic realignment in the Gulf."
This example highlights the global complexities of the AI race between the U.S. and China. While U.S. policymakers see an opportunity to use these AI partnerships to strengthen ties with Gulf states and potentially weaken their relationships with China, the reality is far more complicated. The article suggests that Washington's influence on AI through chip export controls must be balanced against practical limitations to the relationship. These Gulf states maintain close economic ties with China and show no signs of choosing sides. As the article mentions, the U.S. must balance the financial benefits of these partnerships against national security risks. For example, placing advanced AI infrastructure and technology in countries with Chinese connections would significantly increase the risk of U.S. tech winding up in China's hands.
The U.S. faces a tricky balancing act regarding the export of AI technology. On the one hand, exporting would benefit U.S. tech companies economically, enabling the U.S. to enforce some ethical and safety restrictions on AI use. On the other hand, it risks the spread of U.S.-made AI tech to fall into the wrong hands. Should the U.S. choose to refuse the sale of its AI technology, it would push countries toward alternative Chinese AI, which would likely lack the ethical oversight that the U.S. requires, thus enabling malign uses of the technology like oppressive surveillance and systemic oppression.
Greg Hadley, Air & Space Forces Magazine. October 31st, 2024.
The DoD's technology innovation program, Rapid Defense Experimentation Reserve (RDER), is expanding its focus into three crucial military domains: protecting remote military installations, managing orbital assets, and coordinating groups of autonomous drones. Under Thomas Browning's, the Deputy Chief Technology Officer for Mission Capabilities, leadership, this initiative aims to bridge capability gaps identified by military commanders through two-year development cycles. While the first phase concentrated on weapons systems for Pacific operations, Hadley says, "Looking ahead to 2026, leaders just recently selected the two areas it will focus on: space control and support for the terrestrial fight, and autonomous collaboration." Despite achieving some success in transitioning projects to military services, the program faces scrutiny from Senate budget officials for not being as efficient as it could have been.
This research and development signals a shift in DOD's approach to emerging military challenges. The emphasis on base defense and autonomous drone collaboration highlights a growing concern about the vulnerability of forward-deployed assets and the need for advanced unmanned capabilities. The program's focus on developing drones that can operate "independent of human interaction" likely means that the Pentagon seeks to move toward more autonomous warfare capabilities. This action is likely to counter similar developments by strategic competitors like China. The Senate's criticism of RDER threatens potential funding cuts and highlights the ongoing difficulties between adopting rapid innovation and traditional defense procurement processes. Emerging technology systems such as these should be supported as they will be essential for the future of warfighting and deterrence, even if it means adapting how the U.S. approaches military procurement and technology development.
Unshin Lee Harpley, Air & Space Forces Magazine. November 1st, 2024.
The U.S. Air Force is expanding its unmanned aircraft operations into Arctic regions to counter growing Russian and Chinese activities. Russia has increased its presence and deepened cooperation with China in the region, further exemplified by their joint bomber patrols near Alaska. In response, the U.S. military is evaluating new drone variants, such as solar-powered aircraft and cold-weather variants, that are better suited for Arctic operations. Various drone platforms, including MQ-9 Reapers and RQ-4 Global Hawks, are being tested to enhance surveillance capabilities in the Arctic
The U.S. pursuit of employing drones in the Arctic indicates a shift in how the U.S. military and its allies approach defense and surveillance in the region. The new drone capabilities in the Arctic climate will become increasingly necessary if China and Russia cooperate. What's interesting to me is how the traditional surveillance platforms are being repurposed for Arctic operations. This rapid adaptation suggests urgency and resource constraints when facing the increasing threat of adversary action in the region. That said, the emphasis on working with Scandinavian allies and testing new cold-weather technologies indicates a long-term commitment to Arctic operations.
