Articles of Interest - Week 1/6 - 1/12

Battlefield Drones and the Accelerating Autonomous Arms Race in Ukraine

Samuel Bendett, David Kirichenko, Modern War Institute. January 10th, 2025.

Samuel Bendett and David Kirichenko’s new analysis explores how the Russia-Ukraine war has evolved into a testing ground for autonomous and robotic warfare systems. Both sides are racing to gain technological advantages and gain the upper hand in the conflict. The battlefield has become a "war lab for the future," where Western companies eagerly seek "battle-tested in Ukraine" credentials for their products. Ukraine alone is calling for tens of thousands of unmanned ground vehicles for 2025 (mentioned in the Week 12/2-12/8 edition). At the same time Russia claims to be ramping up drone production to 1.4 million units. Both countries have created dedicated unmanned systems branches of their military as the technology becomes more and more central to their military tactics. Both countries are also increasingly integrating AI capabilities into their unmanned weapon systems. Though the extent and capabilities of these systems remains unknown, it is clear that both sides are pursuing AI assisted targeting and drone swarm technology. 

The Russia-Ukraine war’s unintended role as a sandbox for advanced military technology has quickly led to the normalization and emphasization of unmanned systems. Militaries throughout the world are watching the conflict closely and taking notes on new strategies. “What works and what doesn't? Invest in large drones or small ones? How can we increase our military interoperability between air, land, and sea domains?” and so on. The world is watching this technological acceleration reshape military doctrine in real-time. Both sides have moved from ad-hoc deployment of unmanned systems to creating dedicated branches and formal structures in their military and invested millions of dollars into these systems. Military technology companies are no longer working in theory as they can now receive real-time combat feedback for their systems. This "battle-tested" validation process has essentially compressed what might have been decades of peacetime development into just a few years of wartime innovation. These developments are already, and will continue to, force militaries to face both tactical and ethical questions about autonomous systems. 

Could the U.S. Navy Fleet of the Mid-21st Century Include Large Uncrewed Vehicles?

Scott Savitz, Amanda Perez, RAND. January 8th, 2025.

The RAND Corporation has issued a new Expert Insight piece examining how unmanned systems could reshape the U.S. Navy's force structure by mid-century. The report outlines two major potential developments: aircraft carriers exclusively hosting unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and the integration of large unmanned surface vessels (USVs) into strike groups. These changes could increase the fleet capabilities and resilience against near-peer competitors like China. Furthermore, it could potentially reduce personnel requirements as demographic and recruitment challenges intensify for the U.S. military. The authors emphasize the need for cautious implementation and thorough testing prior to integration. Some of the biggest challenges include ensuring reliable autonomous operations, maintaining secure communications, and building institutional trust in unmanned systems. Rather than a complete fleet transformation, RAND advises a gradual approach. They give the examples of starting with  amphibious ships converted to UAV carriers or experimental USV deployments within existing strike groups. Ultimately, the authors state that manned vessels will remain essential for many naval missions over the next few decades, especially in submarines and roles requiring human judgment or human presence for deterrence purposes. 

RAND’s proposal would lead to a whole new imagining of existing naval structures. The idea of converting amphibious ships into UAV carriers shows how unmanned systems might blur the lines between vessel types we've considered distinct for the past few decades. But perhaps most intriguing is RAND's emphasis on the human element in this technological transition. While the promise of autonomous systems is compelling, their insistence that crewed vessels will remain essential through the 2070s reflects a deeper understanding of naval operations that many techno-optimists miss. This isn't just about emerging technology - it's about presence, deterrence, and the irreplaceable role of human judgment in complex environments. Be it in military deterrence situations or nuclear power plant safety, humans will most likely remain “in the loop” for the foreseeable future, and should. Given what we've been seeing in Ukraine with autonomous systems and how they're reshaping land warfare, RAND's approach to naval transformation feels very timely.

Silicon Island: Assessing Taiwan’s Importance to U.S. Economic Growth and Security

William Alan Reinsch, Jack Whitney, CSIS. January 10th, 2025.

According to a new CSIS report, Taiwan's critical role in global technology supply chains (mainly semiconductors) makes it an absolutely essential U.S. economic partner. The report highlights how Taiwan's semiconductor industry, led by industry giant TSMC, fuels everything from U.S. smartphones to AI development. The island manufactures nearly a third of global computing capacity and produces the vast majority of advanced semiconductors. The relationship runs deep between the island and the U.S. tech industry. Taiwan's chip industry helped enable the rise of U.S. tech giants like Nvidia and Apple, while U.S. technology transfers in the 1970s helped establish Taiwan's semiconductor sector. While TSMC's $65 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing facilities is a significant step toward supply chain diversification, the report emphasizes that successfully replicating Taiwan's semiconductor ecosystem elsewhere is unrealistic. 

For many reasons, Taiwan is essential to U.S. national security, and semiconductors represent just one. Without access to Taiwan's semiconductors, the U.S. would struggle to advance emerging technology, especially AI, at the pace that it has been. Furthermore, the U.S. relies heavily on these chips to produce most advanced military systems. China and the CCP have regularly threatened the island and claimed the right to take it by force. The history between mainland China and Taiwan goes back extensively but would take up far too much space to cover here. This article from the BBC does an excellent job for those interested in learning more about how we arrived at the current tense situation. Returning to the topic of semiconductors, the U.S. has been aware of the semiconductor reliance on Taiwan for quite some time, and while I believe it is essential for national security to diversify U.S. access to the necessary chips, I also believe that the U.S. should more formally commit to protecting the island should China attempt to take it by force (again, a longer topic for another time). For the future of AI and other emerging technologies, the U.S. must protect and continue to work closely with Taiwan to maintain supply chain access and improve technology sharing.