Articles of Interest - Week 10/21 - 10/27
- Walker Robinson
- Oct 27, 2024
- 5 min read
The White House. October 24th, 2024.
This week, the White House released a Memo on the future of AI in the U.S. government and its importance for U.S. national security interests, both domestically and globally. It outlined an approach to ensure the U.S. maintains leadership in AI while ensuring the technology's safe and ethical use in national security matters. It directs government agencies to develop AI capabilities, protect against foreign AI threats, and develop governance frameworks. Some key initiatives mentioned in the memo include improving and safeguarding domestic infrastructure, attracting global AI talent, and creating new oversight bodies like the AI National Security Coordination Group. The memo also requires these agencies to take this action within a year and to provide yearly reporting for the next five years. The memo emphasized themes like balancing innovation and safety, global cooperation, and a need to maintain U.S. leadership. It is also worth noting that China was not named directly in this memo, though references to "adversaries" were made.
This memo represents the most comprehensive action the U.S. government has taken on AI to date. Within it, the U.S. government acknowledges the immense opportunities and threats accompanying AI innovation and deployment. By emphasizing the fast-paced incorporation of AI while developing strict oversight, the White House is positioning the U.S. to better compete with strategic rivals such as China and maintain its technological advantage. The focus on protecting AI infrastructure, attracting global AI talent, and leading global initiatives suggests the U.S. views AI superiority as crucial to maintaining its strategic advantage. That being said, the emphasis on democratic values and safety will likely slow down implementation compared to U.S. adversaries, who will likely not have the same restrictions. Perhaps most notable is the theme of international cooperation. The U.S. seems to be seeking to establish a global framework based on democratic values for AI development, similar to the approach previously taken regarding nuclear technology. This approach of balancing national security, innovation, and ethics could set the global standard for military AI development. Still, its success will depend on implementation speed and effectiveness.
Department of Defense. October 24th, 2024.
The U.S., Australia, and the U.K. (AUKUS) have completed a three-week “maritime experimentation” called Autonomous Warrior 24 in Australia. These tests centered around various autonomous and networked systems designed to enhance maritime awareness through networked autonomy, as well as develop advanced decision-making and strike capabilities among the AUKUS partners. The event, part of the Maritime Big Play (MBP) initiative, demonstrated new technologies ranging from underwater drones to high-altitude communications systems. Key developments included testing the Multi-Domain Uncrewed Secure Integrated Communications (MUSIC) network architecture and the Common Control System (CCS), designed to enhance coordination and interoperability among unmanned systems across the three nations. ‘
This event and the tested technologies indicate a growing awareness that the future of warfare and national security will rely highly on autonomous systems, both aerial and naval, reliable information sharing, and command and control systems. When multiple militaries engage in a conflict together, communication is key, and the technological complexities of the future will only make that communication more and more necessary. The AUKUS alliance is aware of those challenges and is working to build better coordination and interoperability between their forces and advanced military technology. This alliance will be critical for countering China and any conflict that could break out in East Asia, be that over Taiwan, the South China Sea, or elsewhere. It is essential that the U.S. and its allies, in AUKUS and elsewhere, work toward effectively implementing the coordination required to use these emerging technologies efficiently.
MIT Technology Review Insights. October 21st, 2024.
The global infrastructure sector faces a massive funding and construction issue. Estimated annual investment of $15 trillion globally and $1.7 trillion in Asia alone are needed through 2030. Against a backdrop of severe skilled worker shortages, the U.S. is expected to experience a 33% shortfall by 2031; the industry is turning to AI for solutions. Large language models and machine learning are being deployed to address key challenges like the automation of repetitive tasks (which currently consume 30-50% of engineers' time), reduction of material waste (currently at 30% in the U.S.), and improvement of sustainability through real-time monitoring systems that flag any issues on the construction site.
While construction may not immediately come to mind when we discuss national security, the use of AI in this field represents a broader movement toward using AI to increase productivity and address workforce issues. Should this approach be applied across the U.S. military-industrial complex, it would likely enable a much-needed boost to the U.S.'s ability to produce everything from ammunition to satellites. The U.S. has continued to supply military aid to Ukraine and other allied countries, but the production capability is strained. If a conflict broke out in East Asia, over Taiwan or the South China Sea, the U.S. would be hard-pressed to supply their allies or military sufficiently. Increasing production through AI offers a promising path toward improving U.S. production and ensuring it can continue to provide military aid to the countries it has committed to.
Shah Meer, Modern Diplomacy. October 19th, 2024.
The rapid development and deployment of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) is transforming modern warfare as we know it. Major powers like the U.S., China, and Russia have led the development and integration of this technology into their militaries. From Turkey's autonomous drones in Libya to AI-powered systems in Ukraine and Israel's advanced weapons in Gaza, these technologies are already being used in combat today. This article outlines three categories of autonomous weapons: human-in-the-loop, human-on-the-loop, and fully autonomous systems, and highlights recent developments like the Pentagon's Replicator initiative and China's new multiplicating war drones. Despite the UN declaring these weapons "politically unacceptable and morally repugnant," countries have continued to pursue their development primarily because of cost efficiency and reduced human risk.
As AI and LAWS become more straightforward and capable of producing, we will likely see a further increase in the development and deployment of these systems by the world's leading militaries. The very prospect of drone swarms likely haunts military officials' nightmares. This technology will almost certainly change how combat, reconnaissance, and command and control are approached. Despite these systems' capabilities for militaries, they are accompanied by numerous threats. Historically, new military technology leads to a cycle of offensive and defensive innovation as countries go through the thought process of "Can we get that tech for ourselves?" and "How can we defend against that tech?" This cycle often takes the form of an arms race. The use of LAWS raises numerous moral and ethical issues but in the event of an arms race between, for example, the U.S. and China, these issues are likely to take a backseat in the name of "winning" the arms race. As with most emerging technology and its use in national security, the U.S. must approach its deployment with care and consideration because if we don't? That arms race becomes a "race to the bottom," and everyone loses.
