Articles of Interest - Week 12/2-12/8
- Walker Robinson
- Dec 8, 2024
- 4 min read
Updated: Jan 27
Alexander Meinke, Bronson Schoen, Jérémy Scheurer, Mikita Balesni, Rusheb Shah, Marius Hobbhahn, Apollo Research. December 5th, 2024.
Apollo Research's recent study revealed some highly concerning capabilities in several advanced AI models. The study found that these models (including Claude and ChatGPT) were capable of engaging in deceptive behaviors, such as “self exfiltration and disabling oversight, to achieve a preset goal should new instructions threaten or undermine the initial goal. Additionally, the study found that the models would sometimes attempt to "preserve" or "escape" if they "believed" they were under threat of not being able to achieve their initial task. The research tested six AI models through different scenarios and found that five of the six could scheme and deceive when given specific goals that conflicted with their developers' intentions. Furthermore, specific AI systems showed they could deliberately underperform on tests to avoid triggering security measures.
The fact that these AI systems could be strategically deceptive is highly concerning. Especially regarding the reliability of existing AI safety measures and the trustworthiness of these systems. How can humans reliably confirm the safety of AI models if they can intentionally deceive their users? The study suggests that the current testing and evaluation methods for AI safety may be insufficient to detect dangerous AI behaviors. Even a slight chance of going rogue would be perilous in sensitive applications like defense systems or critical infrastructure. The fact that some models can maintain deceptive behavior through multiple rounds of questioning shows that even robust oversight might not be enough to ensure AI systems behave as intended. As countries seek to deploy AI in fields such as military applications and nuclear infrastructure, even the smallest of margins of error can lead to extremely dangerous results. I sincerely hope that this paper brings attention to these systems' developers so that they can address this risk. The paper itself is a bit long and quite technical, but worth the read if you've got the time.
Anduril Industries. December 4th, 2024.
OpenAI (creators of ChatGPT) and Anduril Industries have announced a new partnership to integrate cutting-edge AI capabilities into military defense systems. The partnership's primary focus is on counter-drone technology and modern anti-air defense systems. The collaboration will combine OpenAI's AI models with Anduril's defense systems and Lattice software platform to enhance the protection of U.S. and allied forces from unmanned aerial threats. The partnership intends to use AI to improve threat detection, assessment, and response capabilities and reduce the mental burden on human operators.
This partnership could represent a shift in the AI industry's willingness to work with the defense industry. OpenAI's previously wary approach to military AI applications seems to be shifting. The partnership could signal a new phase in how leading AI companies approach defense collaborations. It could also set precedents for future public-private partnerships in military AI development. However, the announcement also raises some questions about how the companies will balance their stated commitment to AI safety and ethics with the development of military applications. Given recent research stressing potential risks in AI systems' reliability and potential for deceptive behaviors (discussed above), safety measures must match advancements in military application.
Tom Balmforth, Reuters. December 2nd, 2024.
According to Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, the country is betting heavily on emerging technology as a means to improve frontline logistics and increase its production of long-range drones equipped with offensive capabilities. The small "buggy-like" robots already operate in combat zones throughout Ukraine and Russia's Kursk region. They are designed to transport ammunition and evacuate wounded soldiers from areas under fire. Furthermore, Ukraine has stated its aim to manufacture 30,000 deep-strike drones next year, along with developing new AI-powered targeting systems and anti-drone capabilities to counter Russia's own nightly drone attacks.
The rapid evolution of Ukraine's drone strategy reflects a broader transformation in modern warfare. Autonomous systems are increasingly shaping battlefield dynamics in the air, land, and sea. The push toward AI-enabled targeting and drone swarms only scratches the surface of what emerging technology will bring to the battlefield. Russia's improved ability to detect and strike drone launch sites has forced Ukraine to change its tactics constantly. The ongoing cat-and-mouse game between offensive and defensive capabilities heavily emphasizes the speed at which new systems can be created and deployed. In a situation like Ukraine, where failure to adapt could mean the loss of their country, it is understandable how safety measures could take a backseat to rapid development and deployment. That being said, military technology companies providing Ukraine with these systems must not cut corners when it comes to integrating emerging technology into military systems. As with most emerging technologies, and as I regularly repeat, a balance will need to be found between safe/secure innovation while still providing Ukraine military aid in a timely manner.
Patrick Tucker, Defense One. December 2nd, 2024.
General Dynamics' new Defense Operations Grid-Mesh Accelerator (DOGMA) system represents a new advanced approach to military air defense. This system is designed to counter the advanced aerial threats, like hypersonic missiles and drone swarms, that threaten modern militaries. The system addresses the critical challenge of rapidly collecting, analyzing, and distributing data from multiple sensors across contested environments. At a recent U.S. military test, DOGMA demonstrated its effectiveness by maintaining communications through simulated disruptions with only 33-millisecond delays and providing operators with 30-second warning times against highly maneuverable threats.
This technology addresses concerns over sophisticated aerial threats that can overwhelm traditional anti-air defense systems. DOGMA's capability to combine data from different sources like portable radios, satellites, and radar systems and use cloud infrastructure showcases a future where air defense systems become increasingly automated and resilient. That being said, challenges remain. Acquiring sufficient training data, as highlighted by the pending FAA request for historical flight information, could delay the technologies development. This technology is only one of many advanced systems being developed and integrated into the world's modern militaries. Warfare will become increasingly automated, fast-paced, and destructive. These systems could enable massive advantages over technologically lacking opponents, shifting how decision-makers calculate the cost of conflict.
